Arguably the toughest test in Southgate’s tenure awaits tonight. England have looked strong so far in this World Cup but for the first time they go into a match as underdogs. Against the world champions, we will get a true look into the progress this team have made over the last few years. England have never beaten the reigning champions in the World Cup, and today I’ll look at what chance they have of doing so.
Southgate’s Selection
An unchanged team is expected from the Round of 16 win against Senegal. Crucially this means there should be no place for Marcus Rashford, leaving Foden on the left wing with Saka on the right.
Saka’s role is crucial in helping Walker to deal with Mbappe, exploiting the space Mbappe does not cover defensively. Mbappe does not have the responsibility to track back on the left wing in France’s lopsided 4-2-3-1 formation.
Out of possession this means Rabiot, the left sided in their midfield pairing, covers that space. Griezmann then drops in from his no.10 position to cover the space vacated by Rabiot. This means that Saka will often be left in space with Rabiot having some distance to cover to mark him. This will often leave Saka with one man to beat on France’s left side, Theo Hernandez. The AC Milan left back is incredibly fast and physical so Saka may cause more problems for Hernandez than the right footed Rashford, who would struggle to get the better taking on Hernandez on the outside. Saka, often cutting in on his left foot, will be more difficult for Hernandez to deal with and will offer an opportunity for England to create an overload on his side with an overlapping run from Kyle Walker or a midfielder. If this becomes a problem for France, Mbappe may be forced to track back more than usual, reducing his attacking threat.
Foden will need to retain possession well as England will have less of the ball against France, and he usually does so very well. Kounde, France’s right back, plays club football as a centre back for Barcelona, and his play reflects this in the way he is reserved in his positioning, rarely committing forward as much as his left-sided counterpart, Hernandez.
France’s Attacking Threat
France have a very dangerous, multi-faceted attack. Mbappe and Ousmane Dembele flank the team, who are rapid, skillful and unpredictable. Giroud will offer a unique direct threat, and his ability to find space in the box coupled with his innovative finishing ability makes him a tough test for England’s centre backs. Griezmann has been ever-present in France’s team over the last few years and offers the complete package for an attacking midfielder.
Giroud is always a threat in the box and will need to be carefully marked due to the crossing ability of Hernandez, Dembele and Griezmann. He will occupy both centre backs at times meaning runs off the full backs or midfielders of England may create an overload which Stones and Maguire can not deal with. Despite this, the pair both have good aerial ability and enough pace to keep up with Giroud’s runs, so should not be overly troubled by his aerial threat as much as other France opponents, should their concentration levels stay high.
Although no defender is able to single-handedly deal with Mbappe, if a manager had the opportunity to create an ‘anti-Mbappe’ plan with every player in the world available, Walker would be an inclusion in the eleven. His experience, physicality and pace make him arguably the best one-on-one defender in the world. Unfortunately for England, he is facing one of the fastest, most skillful, and most reliable finishers in the world on the left wing. He will need to be dealt with in numbers with Saka and Henderson being needed to close down his passing options or the space he will look to run in to. At 23 years of age, Mbappe has 250 career goals, meaning his fast paced advances into opposition territory often end with the ball in the back of the net. Any lapse in concentration will be punished, but even if concentration is high, Mbappe can be unstoppable at times and England may need to hope he has one of his very rare ‘off-days’.
Ousmane Dembele is famously strong with both feet, has incredible pace, aswell as dribbling and crossing ability. He offers a similar, but lesser threat than Mbappe, not being quite as quick and being much less reliable in front of goal. Shaw, though, is much less equipped to deal with this type of threat than Walker and this could be a serious mismatch.
Griezmann is a technically strong attacking midfielder who offers great defensively capacities due to his hard-working nature, especially compared to other players in his position. England’s relatively reserved midfield three should not struggle to deal with his attacking threat but may become a problem if England midfield is stretched to help deal with France’s wingers. He has the ability to pick out clever passes and offers a huge goalscoring threat when in space on the edge of the box.
England’s Threat
Kane has shown how he has developed as a player since Russia 2018 in this World Cup. He has scored just one but has provided consistent chances to his teammates and England have scored twelve goals in their four matches despite their usual talisman only scoring once. Rashford and Saka have scored three each and shown how England have become less reliable on Kane’s goals to get results.
The criticism of Harry Kane has often been that he drops too deep for England, but we have seen how dependent England are on this movement. The first thirty minutes against Senegal saw Kane stay high and advanced, and England’s midfield lacks the creative spark of many others without the assistance of Kane’s movement and passing ability. Kane vacating the box often drags defenders with him, as they fear the passing ability he possesses. This means that the wingers have more space to run into, particularly inside the fullback. Foden and Saka could benefit from this as France’s physical centre backs will be eager to hassle Kane when he drops deep. This threat of runs in behind France’s defence may be lessened by the lack of any pace imbalance favouring England. Kounde and Hernandez are both at least as quick as, and much stronger than, the England winger they will be marking. Rashford will be a valuable asset if the bench should the likes of Kounde tiew as the match reaches its latter stages.
England’s midfield offers a distinct lack of creativity, notably due to the inclusion of Henderson for his experience and hard working nature over a more threatening Foden or Mount. France are able to give him space as he has shown when in space he is poor when it comes to picking out a threatening pass. Bellingham on the other hand, has been one of the best players at the award Cup so far. He is the perfect midfielder and his runs into the box may be useful due to the way France’s midfield adapts in their defensive shape, and there is often space left for attacking midfielder players to advance into. His passing ability, tenacity and creativity will be crucial if England are to progress to the semi-final.
Aswell as the previously mentioned threatening of Saka, Foden will also cause problems for Kounde. The passing ability of England’s wide men will mean Bellingham’s runs into the box could offer a real threat for England. Saka and Foden are both excellent at picking out runners into the box due to their roles a club level. Foden will also have more assistance from Shaw than Saka will from Walker due to Mbappe’s advanced positioning out of possession. This could mean Shaw’s crossing ability will be utilised to pick out Bellingham and Kane’s runs.
In Conclusion
I can not help but feel France will have too much for England. They have an incredible abundance of talent shown by their high performance levels with notable absentees at this World Cup. That is not to say England have no chance, and this one could go the distance as so many knockout games have so recently. France’s attackers may just be too much for England’s defence to deal with. With that said, England have a great chance to prove themselves on the big stage once again and have the ability to break down any team, meaning this game should be a truly unmissable spectacle.
AOG Football 